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Linux market-share on Steam dropped 0.08% in December 2016

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Something I forgot to write up, was that the latest Steam survey is out. Linux dropped by 0.08% according to the figures.

I always leave it a few days to cover it, as Valve tends to finalize the statistics a few days after it's put out. Originally it said we dropped by 0.01% which wasn't right.

December 2016
Windows 95.75% + 0.35%
OSX 3.31% - 0.28%
Linux 0.80% - 0.08%

I know a lot of people don't have faith in it, but from all the chats I've had with developers it's pretty accurate actually. If it wasn't, we would be seeing vastly different sales figures from developers.

The key thing to remember though, is that a lower percentage does not mean less Linux users. You have to remember that Steam is constantly growing, and every time they talk about the amount of active Steam accounts it has grown by a large amount. Only recently Steam passed 14 million concurrent user accounts online at a time.

To use our own survey as an example here. For the latest results from our Survey Ubuntu-based distributions gained +57 people, but the overall share for Ubuntu-based dropped by 0.69%, this is because all the other distributions gained +82 together, meaning their growth together outpaced Ubuntu-based.

Why is this important to know? Well, it's highly likely the amount of Linux users on Steam is growing, but it's probably dwarfed by Windows (and likely Mac too) growth at the same time so it brings down our market-share.

Nothing to worry about, so if anyone writes about it like it's Linux gaming doomsday, don't believe them. It would be something to worry about if developers started coming along noticing a drop in sales from Linux, but not a single developer has said so.

Keep buying Linux games, keep playing them on Linux and keep going. 2017 is going to be fun! Article taken from GamingOnLinux.com.
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I am the owner of GamingOnLinux. After discovering Linux back in the days of Mandrake in 2003, I constantly came back to check on the progress of Linux until Ubuntu appeared on the scene and it helped me to really love it. You can reach me easily by emailing GamingOnLinux directly. Find me on Mastodon.
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bubexel Jan 16, 2017
Nop, valve is faking this stats to don't scare Microsoft, and think linux is not a real threat. Meanwhile vale is developing a new steam machine generation that will break the market!

ok.. i have a big imagination.
tuubi Jan 16, 2017
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@Jaromir: Linux user does not mean Linux gamer. Most Windows users are not gamers either.
Perkeleen_Vittupää Jan 16, 2017
Quoting: bubexelNop, valve is faking this stats to don't scare Microsoft, and think linux is not a real threat.

Very possible. The Steam "survey" is obviously not equal in means of count it pops up on Linux and Windows. Why don't Valve just use the everytime login information?
Alm888 Jan 16, 2017
Quoting: Purple Library GuyAnd Steam has definitely remained the natural place to go for Linux gamers.

Objection! I did not ditch Windows in favor of Linux to sell myself right to the "Microsoft #2" AKA "Valve". Will not touch anything DRM-related ever.

Quoting: liamdaweLinux dropped by 0.08% according to the figures.

It is a really interesting question... We are always talking about how popular is Linux between Steam users. Maybe it is a good idea to scoop how popular is Steam between Linux users?

Quoting: liamdaweI'm afraid such users really will be in the minority.

A question about this in the local survey should be interesting. Let's find it out!
Shmerl Jan 16, 2017
Quoting: liamdawe
Quoting: Shmerl
Quoting: Purple Library GuyAnd Steam has definitely remained the natural place to go for Linux gamers.

Not necessarily. Linux gamers tend to be averse to DRM and can avoid Steam altogether. The survey simply doesn't represent such users at all.
I'm afraid such users really will be in the minority.

May be, but a significant one I suspect, to make survey numbers not as valuable, as they are often presented.
Purple Library Guy Jan 16, 2017
Quoting: tuubi
Quoting: Purple Library GuySure, I know Steam has itself been growing--but why would it be growing disproportionately among non-Linux users?
Why is this hard to believe? Linux gaming is growing, but there's no good reason to expect it would grow at exactly the same rate worldwide as PC gaming in general. And of course the survey won't give us exact figures. Trends are the most we can expect.
At exactly the same rate? No, to the contrary, there is reason to expect it would grow faster than PC gaming in general. Going back to the first point, it seems that as a proportion of total personal computer use (for browsing the web), Linux use is growing, according to a variety of stat-gathering outfits--the rate of growth reported varies, but the existence of growth seems to be widely agreed on. So the question is, would we expect the proportion of Linux users who game (on Steam) to grow faster than the proportion of Windows users who game, at the same rate, or slower? Well, I'm unaware of anything about Windows that has drastically improved the gaming experience in recent months; anything that might push console gamers or non-gamers to desktop computer gaming and Steam that I can imagine should work on both Windows users and Linux users. Anything that might push purchasers of games on CD to Steam should also work both on Windows and Linux users. Overall, I can't think of any source of overall Steam growth that should systematically exclude Linux desktops as opposed to Windows or Mac ones. And, again, the proportion of total desktops on Linux seems to be growing.

But I think we're all agreed that gaming on Linux has of late years and months been rapidly getting better; as a general desktop, Linux was already pretty mature a couple of years ago when it debuted on Steam, but as a viable gaming platform it has gotten way better in that time. Furthermore, distributions have now had a couple of years to get used to the idea that Steam is a thing, so they are much more likely to have it pre-installed or readily installable in whatever software repository they use than at the beginning. As Linux users update, Steam should have become steadily more accessible to them. So there are good reasons for a Linux desktop user to be much more likely to game, on Steam, using that Linux desktop now than a couple of years ago (and for dual-booters to spend more of their gaming time in Linux, less in Windows).

To sum up: If the overall percentage of Linux desktops is growing, and the viability of Linux for gaming is growing fast, then why would the percentage of Linux gamers be shrinking?

Quoting: Shmerl
Quoting: Purple Library GuyAnd Steam has definitely remained the natural place to go for Linux gamers.

Not necessarily. Linux gamers tend to be averse to DRM and can avoid Steam altogether. The survey simply doesn't represent such users at all.
I oversimplified, admittedly. My post was getting long. Yes, there are plenty of people who avoid DRM by using GOG and so forth. And my hat is off to them; I respect that. But they do seem to be in the minority, first of all. And more importantly, there does not seem to have been a sudden renaissance in purist principle among Linux users in the last year or so, so I would expect the principled Steam avoiders to stay in roughly the same proportion among Linux gamers over time. If anything I might expect new Linux adopters (of which there do seem to be a fair number) to be less likely to hold these principles strongly, and so the proportion to be, unfortunately, falling. So, GOG users might explain an oddly low Linux percentage on Steam in the first place, but not a decline over time.
tuubi Jan 16, 2017
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Quoting: Purple Library GuyTo sum up: If the overall percentage of Linux desktops is growing, and the viability of Linux for gaming is growing fast, then why would the percentage of Linux gamers be shrinking?
I don't see why we should expect a direct, immediate cause-and-effect relationship. The rapidly improving quality of the gaming experience might be laying a foundation for growth, but we probably shouldn't expect an immediate surge in uptake.
Purple Library Guy Jan 16, 2017
Quoting: tuubi
Quoting: Purple Library GuyTo sum up: If the overall percentage of Linux desktops is growing, and the viability of Linux for gaming is growing fast, then why would the percentage of Linux gamers be shrinking?
I don't see why we should expect a direct, immediate cause-and-effect relationship. The rapidly improving quality of the gaming experience might be laying a foundation for growth, but we probably shouldn't expect an immediate surge in uptake.

One might say we shouldn't be sure of such a surge, but there's no reason to have no expectations of one. But stipulating no such surge, why should we expect a decline? What factor is it that is so not equal between Windows PCs and Linux PCs in the last year or so that although the percentage of PC desktops using Linux is apparently growing significantly, the percentage of PC desktops gaming on Linux (at least, on Steam) is supposed to be declining?
In all the times this stuff has been discussed here at GamingonLinux, I've seen exactly one factor proposed as an actual explanation: The proposal early in this thread that much of the recent Steam growth has been of Asian use of Steam, and that Asians don't use Linux. I don't actually know whether either of these things is true or, if true, a big enough factor to be an explanation.

But the claim I often see, that the Linux share on Steam is shrinking because Steam use overall is growing, is not an explanation. It presumes that some factor is causing Windows PC use of Steam to grow, that somehow does not cause Linux PC use of Steam to grow. But what factor? With the exception of the Asian idea I mention above which I am not at all sure I buy, nobody has suggested what such a factor could be.
Either there is such a factor, or there is something seriously wrong with the Steam survey. Since we don't know how the Steam survey works and we have lots of anecdotal indications that it is half-assed in various ways, I don't think we can rule out of bounds that second possibility. Alternatively, we need some suggestions about this mystery factor, or perhaps to shore up the Asian hypothesis with some figures. Because really, the idea that Linux Steam use (per number of Linux desktops) is shrinking fast compared to Windows Steam use (per number of Windows desktops) strikes me as very strange and counterintuitive.
Shmerl Jan 16, 2017
Quoting: Purple Library GuyIt presumes that some factor is causing Windows PC use of Steam to grow, that somehow does not cause Linux PC use of Steam to grow. But what factor?

First of all, I don't see the survey as even representing Steam picture correctly (why do you need the survey, if Steam has complete data no doubt?). But one factor can potentially be higher number of games that don't have Linux versions still. If we assume gaming market is growing, and only a minority of games have Linux releases, then may be non Linux segment has larger growth?
tuubi Jan 16, 2017
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Quoting: Purple Library GuyOne might say we shouldn't be sure of such a surge, but there's no reason to have no expectations of one. But stipulating no such surge, why should we expect a decline?
What decline? We're going in circles, but I still don't see why you'd expect every metric to grow linearly and in proportion to each other. There's just no good reason for this expectation.

I am sure, or rather I know Linux gaming is growing. Steam user base is also growing, and fast. These two might grow at different rates and those rates are not likely to be constant. Even in relation to each other.
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