Steam Survey for April 2026 shows Linux still trending well

0 64 bit? 😆

Hopefully the dip brought the numbers closer to reality.
That's still a 1.5% increase since the Windows 10 EoL. Roughly 2% over the last year. Despite the Steam Deck being out of stock for many months now. The future of Linux gaming is looking bright, folks.

Last edited by _Mars on 2 May 2026 at 1:59 pm UTC

It's really wild. 10% by ~2030 seems just about inevitable now.

Even as someone who's used Linux for literally decades now, I'd have never thought this would be such a thing.

There is no real exponential trend. I did the math some hours ago and there was a linear trend before Steam Deck release, than an accelerated trend between Steam Deck Release and Win10 EOL and a 5.5 times increase after Win10 EOL. Steam Deck OLED did not change the linear trend. November and December 2025 had exactly the same 5.5 times increase as the whole 2026 until April. January and February were Chinese New Year, March somehow bad data, so these should be ignored.

If it would be a real exponential curve, March data would be real and April even above that. So it would be better to use 3 linear lines, clamped between those relevant dates.

PS: If it is linear we will see on Windows 10 extended support end of life. It should be around 6%. It should be far above 6% if it is exponential.

Last edited by PlayingOnLinuxphone on 2 May 2026 at 2:07 pm UTC

Quoting: mattaraxiaIt's really wild. 10% by ~2030 seems just about inevitable now.

With the current speed, 9.5% is reached by end of 2027 and considering Steam hardware it should even be above 10% next year (if nothing slows down).

Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphone

Quoting: mattaraxiaIt's really wild. 10% by ~2030 seems just about inevitable now.

With the current speed, 9.5% is reached by end of 2027 and considering Steam hardware it should even be above 10% next year (if nothing slows down).

I'm as excited as every other Linux enthusiast but that's very unlikely.
We're probably not going to see such big jumps frequently.

Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphoneThere is no real exponential trend. I did the math some hours ago and there was a linear trend before Steam Deck release, than an accelerated trend between Steam Deck Release and Win10 EOL and a 5.5 times increase after Win10 EOL. Steam Deck OLED did not change the linear trend. November and December 2025 had exactly the same 5.5 times increase as the whole 2026 until April. January and February were Chinese New Year, March somehow bad data, so these should be ignored.

If it would be a real exponential curve, March data would be real and April even above that. So it would be better to use 3 linear lines, clamped between those relevant dates.

PS: If it is linear we will see on Windows 10 extended support end of life. It should be around 6%. It should be far above 6% if it is exponential.

Here's a visual aid.

As you say, it's all pretty flat before the Deck, then we get added a pretty linear Deck signal, and then we get a pretty linear desktop signal as the Deck flattens out.

I've found the 5-month moving average to be quite good at separating out the signal from the noise.


There's no real justification for splatting the data onto an exponential curve, although we get someone demanding that it's done pretty much every month so I'm not surprised that Liam's given it to them to make them stop. One could splat it into a logarithmic, sinusoidal or tangent curve just as easily.

Quoting: SakuretsuWe're probably not going to see such big jumps frequently.

That jump is already done. We are on a 3% per year rate right now. 2 years multiplied with 3% = 6% plus 3.5% of last year December = 9.5%. No further jump or acceleration, just continuing growth of last 6 months, which is very likely considering 25% of Win10 users and that Win11 growths slower than Linux does. I did not even include Steam Machine and VR or EOL#2 in this math.

And also consider this: until now Linux never had a slow down in growth. That will happen at some point, but there is no sign it will happen in 2026/2027.

Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphone

Quoting: mattaraxiaIt's really wild. 10% by ~2030 seems just about inevitable now.

With the current speed, 9.5% is reached by end of 2027 and considering Steam hardware it should even be above 10% next year (if nothing slows down).

Maybe. I doubt it's quite that fast, but could be. I mean that is certainly by ~2030. There isn't another Windows 10 EOL coming, so it probably won't be quite as fast as the current rate non-stop, but I'm virtually sure it won't reverse. We also may just not need another Windows 10 EOL. Linux is hip now. It may just get even faster.

Steam Hardware is tricky. On the one hand the RAM shortage is hurting it. But that's probably balanced out by the RAM shortage driving Windows 10 EOL'ers to switch.

Since people don't trust me, I also draw some lines:



Everyone can extrapolate the line themselves.