Depending on where you look, Linux on the desktop has somewhere between 4-6% user share on the desktop. Showing it's growing slowly but steadily overall.
A lot of people like to look at Statcounter, which we've covered here at GamingOnLinux quite a few times which currently showings Linux on the desktop at about 4.1% for June 2025 globally. However, there's another pretty big source of data we can use for checking on this – the US government.
Using the US government public data, we can see that over the last 30 days the Linux user share hit an all-time high there at 6.1%. Pretty healthy looking percentage there, and if we filter it to the current calendar year overall it's at 5.8%. That's a surprisingly high number, given their data mentions how they've had "1.48 billion sessions in the last 30 days" to pull the data from.
Going back to Statcounter and filtering to the US, it's also showing an all-time high for Linux at 5.1% too. And then there's our Steam Tracker, showing Linux for gaming has been steadily trending upwards too.
We've all seen the running joke of the "Year of the Linux desktop", and while most celebrations on it are rather premature, we've truly over the last year or two seen quite a seismic shift in how people have been looking at Linux. Not just from data points like these, but the wider consensus when you look at how even bigger influencers have been pouring more time into covering Linux too (and their videos doing well). Look at PewDiePie with 110M subscribers telling people to now install Linux, or how about JayzTwoCents too and various others.
Seems like there's never been a better time to try out Linux on the desktop.
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxia5tx5gdqh07gMJ5CcVTvaHMeApUj3BV

I'm glad that a certain degree of pragmatism (e.g. W10's October deadline) is finally being embraced in our beloved ecosystem.
Windows 32.5%
iOS 32.4%
Android 16.5%
Macintosh 11.7%
Linux 6.1%
Chrome OS 0.8%
Other < 0.1%
And the devices are:
desktop 51.2%
mobile 47.2%
tablet 1.2%
Smart TV 0.3%
so basically on desktop Linux is 11,9%

Further, the more popular linux becomes the more ripe for corpo takeover it also becomes. If you look at the corps already paying for linux development it is quite shocking.
It won't happen overnight, but I'd wager that in 10 years linux will be more adopted and shittier.
That said, I have a completely different and yet eerily similar vision of the future - Windows will one day migrate to the Linux kernel and then we will finally "be there", for better or for worse.
for example locked bootloaders like some android devices, proprietary only drivers for many devices, distros with some proprietary software to differentiate thenselves (steamOS main interface is the steam client not the desktop enviroment, i can see some proprietary DE emerging in the future as well from other vendors), and the worst part: so long its good enough for most people, they wont bother to try to have even more freedom.
linux fragmentation is already an issue, we have tons of distros and the easier way to make sure an game will work on all of then now and in the future is actually targeting windows and trying to run the game on wine, most distros care about ensuring wine work "flawless" on their distro because its a very important application (and even then flawless might not be so flawless, it may just mean we havent tested enough to find the issues)
now imagine with either 1 big distro (most likely android, google is killing chromeOS, merging it code to the desktop mode of android, android will be their desktop OS) or a few big ones with proprietary crap being the ones used by 90% of the users or more, we will have tons of apps that wont work on any free (libre) distro, and if we want to play anything recent or have a descente quality of life, we will have to use then.
I don't think it will make a huge difference to the desktop experience otherwise.